AI could create substantial new wealth. The question this paper examines is who accumulates it, and through which channels it reaches households.
This paper makes the case that a richer economy does not tell us who becomes wealthier. Drawing on the Federal Reserve’s Distributional Financial Accounts, peer-reviewed research from the Quarterly Journal of Economics and Econometrica, plus Anthropic’s October 2026 estimate of more than $40 trillion in annual global knowledge-work value, it shows why national wealth totals conceal the
outcomes that matter to households.
The uncertainty is not whether AI creates wealth, since productivity gains and new businesses can do that.
It is which channels carry the gains to households: earnings, asset ownership and the cost of living.
Our scenario model reaches $229.4 trillion in 2030 on every path, yet the remaining 90% hold either
$45.9 trillion or $103.2 trillion depending on how those gains are distributed..
